Betting Underdogs In Baseball

MLB betting handicappers for years have taken the favorite over the underdog, not realizing the value they could be finding. Betting the favorite in any sport requires you to risk far more than you may be willing to give up. As a result, the more experienced sharps have started betting underdogs, as you are required to risk less and can get back more. Here is a look at betting on underdogs in the MLB.

Over a seven year study it was determined that favorites won at a higher clip then underdogs. Favorites in that time frame had an overall record of 9619 – 6891 -641 units, while dogs formed a record in the same span of 6917 – 9644 – 153 units. Although fans taking the favorite won at a higher clip, then underdogs, there were two telling statistics. Firstly, both types of bettor, favorites and dogs, would eventually show flat rate losses. Secondly, bettors taking the favorite tended to lose four times as much as the underdogs, as suggested by the number of units they had to use.

Favorable Betting Situations

As new handicappers, our goal is to simply determine which lines by sportsbooks are inflated in favor of a favorite and where we can find value for taking the underdog. One of the most favorable situations for underdogs was when teams faced off during inter-divisional matchups.

For instance, bettors that took the underdog during that same seven year study above when the dog faced a divisional opponent showed a record of 3414 – 4513. However, what’s telling about this situation is that underdog bettors were able to show a profit of 191 units.

On the contrary, when underdogs were taken in games where teams not in the same division faced each other, the record was 4401 – 6434. Moreover bettors would show a loss of profit at 341 units in this situation.

Who Will Win The National League In 2010?

According to one of the sports wagering news, this season’s National League has been far more interesting for MLB betting enthusiasts than in years past. For instance, in all three divisions, the division leader is still yet to be determined. In years past, it was a safe bet by June that the NL East and NL Central were going to the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals respectively. This year however, teams such as the NY Mets, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants are making each division difficult to figure out. As a result many fans are unclear who will win the national league title in 2010.

Going into the season, the odds on favorite to win the National League was once again the Philadelphia Phillies. Over the past two years no team has dominated the entire league the way the Phillies have. For instance, in 2008 the Phillies captured the World Series title after defeating the biggest surprise of the decade, Tampa Bay Rays. Than in 2009, they repeated as National League champions, but were unable to defeat fellow powerhouse New York Yankees for the World Series crown. In the offseason the Phillies acquired disgruntled former Blue Jay and future hall of famer Roy Halladay. After acquiring the big righty the team was given the best odds to win the World Series. However the offense has been abysmal this year, leaving room for a few other National League squads to jump in and take the glory.

One team we really like and could see winning the National League, is the San Diego Padres. Over the last few years no team has bounced around in the standing as much as the Padres. Yet this season they appear to finally have put the pieces all together. For example, they got off to a strong start out of the gate and have never been out of first place in the NL West.

What’s more, at the trade deadline, they were the only team in the West to not add anyone and staying the course has proven to be a great move so far. The pitching staff is incredible and is lead by top pitching prospect, Matt Latos. If the pitching can stay strong and the bats continue their good showings, look for the Padres to take the National League title.